Energy and radiative precursor emissions

Abstract

The timing and magnitude of climatic change, the ''greenhouse'' issue, depends on both man-made emissions and natural processes. Energy production, transformation, end-use and conservation are associated with emissions of many of the key radiatively important gases (RIG's). While studies have already been conducted to examine the link between energy use and CO/sub 2/, the linkages between energy and other RIG's are not well understood. In addition, while scenarios of future atmospheric composition used in climate studies have included an explicit recognition of the role of the carbon cycle, they have not included explicit models for the effects of atmospheric chemistry. Crude calculations are presented to examine the potential uncertainty with regard to radiative forcing which could be narrowed by further research in the areas of endogenous emissions and atmospheric chemistry. This uncertainty is narrow over the next 15 years, but is quite large after 50 year or longer periods. 20 refs., 5 tabs.