A hybrid framework for assessing socioeconomic drought: Linking climate variability, local resilience, and demand

Abstract

Abstract Socioeconomic drought broadly refers to conditions whereby the water supply cannot satisfy the demand. Most previous studies describe droughts based on large‐scale meteorological/hydrologic conditions, ignoring the demand and local resilience to cope with climate variability. Reservoirs provide resilience against climatic extremes and play a key role in water supply and demand management. Here we outline a unique multivariate approach as a measure of socioeconomic drought, termed Multivariate Standardized Reliability and Resilience Index (MSRRI). The model combines information on the inflow and reservoir storage relative to the demand. MSRRI combines (I) a “top‐down” approach that focuses on processes/phenomena that cannot be simply controlled or altered by decision makers, such as climate change and variability, and (II) a “bottom‐up” methodology that represents the local resilience and societal capacity to respond or adapt to droughts. MSRRI is based on a nonparametric multivariate distribution function that links inflow‐demand reliability indicator to water storage resilience indicator. These indicators are used to assess socioeconomic drought during the Australian Millennium drought (1998–2010) and the 2011–2014 California drought. The results show that MSRRI is superior to univariate indices because it captures both early onset and persistence of water stress over time. The suggested framework can be applied to both individual reservoirs and a group of reservoirs in a region, and it is consistent with the currently available standardized drought indicators. MSRRI provides complementary information on socioeconomic drought development and recovery based on reservoir storage and demand that cannot be achieved from the commonly used drought indicators.