Analogous Forecasting of Products with a Short Life Cycle

Abstract

Managing a supply chain for products with a short life cycle, like fashion apparel, high-tech, personal computers, toys, CD’s etc., is challenging for many companies (Fisher and Raman, 1999). Because the life cycles of these products are too short for standard time- series forecasting methods (not longer than one – two years), an important way of overcoming the challenges of managing supply chains for such products is to find appropriate forecasting methodologies. The standard forecasting methods require some historical data, which are often unavailable at the time when the forecasts are being performed for products with a short life cycle (Lin, 2005). The method described in this article allows forecasters to use life cycles of similar, analogous products to arrive at the initial forecasts for the product(s) at hand.