Computer simulation model for rural network evacuation under natural disasters

Abstract

A macroscopic computer simulation model was developed to evacuate rural highway networks under the threat of natural disasters. The model was tested, validated, and applied to a small rural town in Virginia. A procedure for determining the optimum evacuation time was outlined. We concluded that the evacuation time is more sensitive to changes in the S-curve slope factor (alpha) than the loading time factor (beta). The levels of these two parameters that produce minimum evacuation time are attained by determining the S-curve slope factor first, then the loading time factor second. The model has proved to be consistent in simulating traffic flow on a street network and it can be used for evaluating different controlled evacuation options and future land use controls.