The impact of EU enlargement on migration flows

Abstract

This document is a report commissioned by the Home Office in order to assess the magnitude of potential migration flows to the UK after the enlargement of the European Union (EU). The countries which are expected to join the EU on 1 May 2004 are Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia. The aim of the report is to provide extensive information that will be helpful in evaluating the migration potential from
\nthese countries to the UK. This is done by (i) describing the socio-economic situation of the accession countries nowadays and since the early 1990s and comparing it to that of the UK and Germany, (ii) critically reviewing the existing literature that attempts to predict the effects of the current EU enlargement on migration flows, (iii) analysing the so-called Southern enlargement (the accessions of Greece, Portugal and Spain) and comparing it to the current one, and (iv) presenting a quantitative analysis of the effect of the current enlargement on migration to the UK.