Szenario-Planung als Instrument einer „klimawandelangepassten“ Stadt- und Regionalplanung – Bausteine der zukünftigen Flächenentwicklung und Szenarienkonstruktion im Stadt-Umland-Raum Rostock

Abstract

Climate change and its impacts form a new major challenge for spatial planning, as planning still shall guarantee a sustainable development in the face of complexity and uncertainty. The presented scenario planning process in the urban region of Rostock, Germany aims at adaptation to the impacts of climate change and herby realizes intensive stakeholder participation. Scenarios are elaborated on the basis of the analysis of key factors for the future spatial development stemming from different thematic fields such as society, ecology, economics and policy and on the basis of the analysis of potential climate change impacts. These scenarios combine impacts of different severity with different potential developments of the key factors to a range of differentiated pictures of the potential future of the urban region. The scenarios allow spatial planners to consider a range of potential futures as well as interrelationships among the key factors and between the key factors and the climate change impacts. As such, they offer the possibility to cope with the main challenges of climate change, complexity and uncertainty and to integrate these challenges into a stakeholder dialogue. This was evaluated to be an innovative and sense making method, which is until now hardly implemented into current planning practice. The scenarios serve as basis for the formulation of concrete adaptation strategies and measures. Moreover, the initiated stakeholder dialogue can later facilitate the practical implementation of developed measures.