Simulation of wind speed forecast errors for operation planning of multiarea power systems

Abstract

The amount of wind power has increased significantly over the last years. When the share of wind power increases it is necessary to consider the produced power in the daily operation planning of the power system. The first step is then to use forecasts of wind power. But the forecasts of wind power are in reality rather uncertain, so reserves have to be kept for unforecasted wind speed changes. But still an economical good solution is of large interest, and the consequence of this is to use stochastic optimization. To be able to do this it is necessary to have a view, so called scenarios, of possible outcomes of wind power. The aim of this paper is to provide a method that can simulate possible outcomes of wind speeds based on available forecasts. The method is based on the assumption that wind speed forecasts are available in several regions and the forecast errors in different regions are correlated. The developed method is based on multidimensional ARMA series.