Job Tenure, Worker Mobility and the Youth Labour Market During the 1990s

Abstract

This study examines prominent and emerging labour market trends of the 1990s to see if they have reversed under the pressure of the robust economic growth of 1997-1999. Specifically, it looks at the dramatic rise in self-employment, trends in job stability, and the low youth employment rate over the 1990s. The strong economic growth in 1997-1999 does not appear to have slowed the rise in self-employment, affected job stability, or dramatically increased youth employment rates. For self-employment this suggests that the rise in the 1990s was not primarily driven by slack labour demand forcing workers to create their own jobs. Job stability rose through much of the 1990s, pushed up by a low quit rate associated with low hiring. The best data currently available show that quit rates in particular have remained relatively low (given the position in the business cycle), and job tenure has remained high. There is little evidence that among paid workers job stability has deteriorated in the 1990s. Lagging youth employment rates were due in large part to an increased propensity for young persons to remain in school. Students have a lower employment rate, and a compositional shift towards more young students lowers the overall employment rate for youth. This propensity for the young to be students has not declined in 1997-1999, and as a result youth employment rates remain low by historical standards.