Global warming and agriculture: impact estimates by country

TLDR

Developing countries face greater risks from global warming than industrial nations, especially in agriculture. The study investigates how global warming will affect agriculture and economic growth in developing countries, using models to forecast impacts and recommend policies. Cline employs general circulation and agricultural impact models to project temperature, precipitation, and capacity changes for 2070‑99, reviewing existing studies. Projected declines in agricultural production range from 10–25 % overall, up to 40 % in India, underscoring the need for immediate policy action.

Abstract

How will global warming affect developing countries, which rely heavily on agriculture as a source of economic growth? William Cline asserts that developing countries have more at risk than industrial countries as global warming worsens. Using general circulation and agricultural impact models, Cline boldly examines 2070-99 to forecast the effects of global warming and its economic impact. This detailed study: * outlines existing studies on the agricultural impact of climate change; * estimates projected changes in temperature, precipitation, and agricultural capacity; and * concludes with policy recommendations. * Cline finds that agricultural production in developing countries may fall between 10 and 25 percent, and if global warming progresses unabated, India's agricultural capacity could fall as much as 40 percent. Thus, policymakers should address this phenomenon now before the world's developing countries are adversely and irreversibly affected.