Risk Overview - Concepedia

Principles

Definition

Risk is the possibility of a future event resulting in adverse consequences or losses. As an academic concept, it investigates the identification, analysis (including likelihood and severity), and evaluation of potential occurrences that may negatively impact individuals, assets, or systems. The study of risk is fundamental for informing decision-making, management strategies, and protective measures across various domains.

Ontological type

Risk Management Strategies

Measurement Techniques

Conceptual Frameworks

Key developments

Key Figures

Cultural Conditioning of Risk era

Edward M. Sellers [1] was an active figure in the Cultural Conditioning of Risk era, affiliated with Harvard University [3] and Boston University [4]. His 1981 paper 'A method for estimating the probability of adverse drug reactions' [6] contributed by quantifying adverse reaction probabilities, providing a bridge between clinical signal detection and probabilistic risk framing that supported culturally informed risk assessment in policy contexts. Louise A. Brinton [2] was likewise a key contributor in this era, with affiliations at Karolinska Institutet [5] and Boston University [4]. Her 1985 paper 'ESTIMATING THE POPULATION ATTRIBUTABLE RISK FOR MULTIPLE RISK FACTORS USING CASE-CONTROL DATA' [7] advanced the translation of culturally shaped risk perceptions into population-level burden estimates, informing risk communication and prioritization in public policy.

Uncertainty Formalization and Standards era

Ralph B. D’Agostino [1], active at Harvard University [3] and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology [4] during this era, emerges as a leading figure in formalizing quantitative risk methods. His key contribution in this era is the development of a risk score for atrial fibrillation based on population cohorts, as reported in Development of a risk score for atrial fibrillation (Framingham Heart Study): a community-based cohort study [5], which advanced the translation of risk measurement into practical, decision-relevant tools under uncertainty. Ramachandran S. Vasan [2], associated with Harvard University [3] and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology [4], is another central figure in this era. He co-authored the same 2009 risk score paper [5], demonstrating the era’s emphasis on standardized risk metrics in population cohorts and informing risk-based decision making under uncertainty.

Robust Prognostic Risk Analytics era

Julian P. T. Higgins [1] is associated with Harvard University [3] and Stanford University [4] during the Robust Prognostic Risk Analytics era. His work on Risk-of-bias VISualization (robvis) [6] provided an accessible framework for visualizing risk-of-bias assessments, promoting transparency and robustness in prognostic modeling. Gary S. Collins [2] is associated with University of California, San Francisco [5] and Stanford University [4]. These works introduced PROBAST: A Tool to Assess the Risk of Bias and Applicability of Prediction Model Studies [7], and PROBAST: A Tool to Assess Risk of Bias and Applicability of Prediction Model Studies: Explanation and Elaboration [8], which provided standardized bias appraisal to improve external validation and the applicability of prognostic risk models in practice.