Concepedia

Reference Class Forecasting

Reference Class Forecasting is a predictive methodology that belongs to the class of comparative forecasting techniques, distinguished by its use of historical outcomes from a broadly defined reference class of past events to generate probabilistic estimates for a current project or event.

36

Publications

3.1K

Citations

49

Authors

37

Institutions

Publications per year

2017–2026

15

Parents

Publications

36

Should we build more large dams? The actual costs of hydropower megaproject development

Atif Ansar, Bent Flyvbjerg, Alexander Budzier et al. · arXiv (Cornell University) · 2014 · 736 citations · Full text

, , +13

Delusions of success. How optimism undermines executives' decisions.

Dan Lovallo, Daniel Kahneman · PubMed · 2003 · 586 citations

, , +17

Curbing Optimism Bias and Strategic Misrepresentation in Planning: Reference Class Forecasting in Practice

Bent Flyvbjerg · European Planning Studies · 2007 · 423 citations

, , +15

Five things you should know about cost overrun

Bent Flyvbjerg, Atif Ansar, Alexander Budzier et al. · Transportation Research Part A Policy and Practice · 2018 · 226 citations · Full text

, , +17

Robust analogizing and the outside view: two empirical tests of case‐based decision making

Dan Lovallo, Carmina Clarke, Colin F. Camerer · Strategic Management Journal · 2011 · 113 citations

, , +13

1–5 of 36

Authors

49

  1. BF
    Bent Flyvbjerg

    University of Oxford, United Kingdom

    8 publications · 1.6K citations

    8

    h-index

  2. DL
    Dan Lovallo

    The University of Sydney, Australia

    6 publications · 1K citations

    6

    h-index

  3. KB
    Kim Bang Salling

    Technical University of Denmark, Denmark

    5 publications · 100 citations

    5

    h-index

  4. AB
    Alexander Budzier

    University of Oxford, United Kingdom

    4 publications · 1.1K citations

    4

    h-index

  5. AA
    Atif Ansar

    University of Oxford, United Kingdom

    4 publications · 1.1K citations

    4

    h-index

1–5 of 49

Institutions

37

  1. University of Oxford

    Oxford, United Kingdom

    9 h-index

    22 publications

    4.5K citations

  2. The University of Sydney

    Sydney, Australia

    5 h-index

    8 publications

    738 citations

  3. Delft University of Technology

    Delft, The Netherlands

    4 h-index

    7 publications

    931 citations

  4. Aalborg University

    Aalborg, Denmark

    4 h-index

    4 publications

    719 citations

  5. Technical University of Denmark

    Kongens Lyngby, Denmark

    4 h-index

    7 publications

    151 citations

  6. Ghent University

    Ghent, Belgium

    3 h-index

    7 publications

    417 citations

  7. University of Ottawa

    Ottawa, Canada

    3 h-index

    6 publications

    203 citations

  8. Curtin University

    Perth, Australia

    3 h-index

    6 publications

    203 citations

1–8 of 37

Venues

  1. Project Management Journal

    3 publications · 143 citations

    3

    h-index

  2. 3

    h-index

  3. IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management

    2 publications · 76 citations

    2

    h-index

  4. Energy Policy

    1 publications · 95 citations

    1

    h-index

  5. Strategic Management Journal

    SMJ · 1 publications · 113 citations

    1

    h-index

1–5