Concepedia

Probability Estimation Bias

Probability Estimation Bias is a cognitive phenomenon in which individuals systematically deviate from objectively correct probability assessments due to heuristics, contextual cues, or subjective beliefs, leading to consistent overestimation or underestimation of event likelihoods in decision-making contexts.

57

Publications

3.3K

Citations

117

Authors

81

Institutions

Publications per year

2017–2026

7

Variants

Probability Judgment Bias

Parents

Publications

57

Dominance of accuracy information and neglect of base rates in probability estimation

Don Lyon, Paul Slovic · Acta Psychologica · 1976 · 376 citations

, , +15

Overconfidence in Probability and Frequency Judgments: A Critical Examination

Lyle Brenner, Derek J. Koehler, Varda Liberman et al. · Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes · 1996 · 301 citations · Full text

, , +16

Overestimation of subjective probabilities

Karl Halvor Teigen · Scandinavian Journal of Psychology · 1974 · 155 citations

, , +17

A sampling approach to biases in conditional probability judgments: Beyond base rate neglect and statistical format.

Klaus Fiedler, Babette Brinkmann, Tilmann Betsch et al. · Journal of Experimental Psychology General · 2000 · 138 citations

, , +17

An availability bias in professional judgment

Laurette Dube‐Rioux, J. Edward Russo · Journal of Behavioral Decision Making · 1988 · 128 citations

, , +9

1–5 of 57

Authors

117

  1. FC
    Fintan Costello

    University College Dublin, Ireland

    4 publications · 46 citations

    4

    h-index

  2. PW
    Paul Watts

    University College Dublin, Ireland

    2 publications · 23 citations

    2

    h-index

  3. JZ
    Jian-Qiao Zhu

    University of Warwick, United Kingdom

    2 publications · 124 citations

    2

    h-index

  4. TB
    Tilmann Betsch

    University of Erfurt, Germany

    2 publications · 233 citations

    2

    h-index

  5. JF
    Jeffrey Friedman

    Harvard University Press, United States

    2 publications · 96 citations

    2

    h-index

1–5 of 117

Institutions

81

  1. University College London

    London, United Kingdom

    3 h-index

    5 publications

    123 citations

  2. University College Dublin

    Dublin, Ireland

    3 h-index

    4 publications

    49 citations

  3. Oregon Research Institute

    Eugene, United States

    2 h-index

    3 publications

    831 citations

  4. University of Oregon

    Eugene, United States

    2 h-index

    5 publications

    977 citations

  5. National University of Ireland

    Dublin, Ireland

    2 h-index

    2 publications

    23 citations

  6. University of Waterloo

    Waterloo, Canada

    2 h-index

    3 publications

    323 citations

  7. Harvard University

    Cambridge, United States

    2 h-index

    3 publications

    192 citations

  8. University of California, Berkeley

    Berkeley, United States

    2 h-index

    2 publications

    209 citations

1–8 of 81

Venues

  1. Journal of Experimental Psychology General

    4 publications · 387 citations

    4

    h-index

  2. Judgment and Decision Making

    3 publications · 176 citations

    3

    h-index

  3. 3

    h-index

  4. eScholarship (California Digital Library)

    Repository · 2 publications · 27 citations

    2

    h-index

  5. Psychological Review

    2 publications · 121 citations

    2

    h-index

1–5