Concepedia

Probabilistic Population Projections

Probabilistic Population Projections is a population forecasting methodology that, unlike deterministic models, characterizes future demographic uncertainty by assigning probability distributions to key fertility, mortality, and migration parameters, thereby generating interval estimates and likelihood-based projections of population outcomes.

130

Publications

9.2K

Citations

287

Authors

160

Institutions

Publications per year

2017–2026

26

Parents

Publications

130

Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study

Emily Goren, Chun-Wei Yuan, Jackie Cao et al. · The Lancet · 2020 · 1.5K citations · Full text

, , +17

World population stabilization unlikely this century

Patrick Gerland, Adrian E. Raftery, Hana Ševčíková et al. · Science · 2014 · 1.4K citations

, , +16

Projections of the Size and Composition of the U.S. Population: 2014 to 2060. Population Estimates and Projections. Current Population Reports. P25-1143.

Sandra L. Colby, Jennifer M. Ortman · 2015 · 436 citations

, , +16

Bayesian probabilistic population projections for all countries

Adrian E. Raftery, Nan Li, Hana Ševčíková et al. · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · 2012 · 296 citations · Full text

, , +16

Stochastic Population Forecasts for the United States: Beyond High, Medium, and Low

Ronald Lee, Shripad Tuljapurkar · Journal of the American Statistical Association · 1994 · 267 citations

, , +16

1–5 of 130

Authors

287

  1. AE
    Adrian E. Raftery

    University of Washington, United States

    18 publications · 3.2K citations

    17

    h-index

  2. PG
    Patrick Gerland

    United Nations Population Fund, United States

    10 publications · 2.5K citations

    10

    h-index

  3. LA
    Leontine Alkema

    University of Massachusetts Amherst, United States

    8 publications · 2K citations

    8

    h-index

  4. HŠ
    Hana Ševčíková

    University of Washington, United States

    8 publications · 2.3K citations

    8

    h-index

  5. WL
    Wolfgang Lutz

    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria

    8 publications · 287 citations

    8

    h-index

1–5 of 287

Institutions

160

  1. University of Washington

    Seattle, United States

    18 h-index

    82 publications

    44.4K citations

  2. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

    Laxenburg, Austria

    7 h-index

    8 publications

    299 citations

  3. United Nations Population Fund

    New York, United States

    7 h-index

    11 publications

    4.3K citations

  4. National University of Singapore

    Singapore, Singapore

    5 h-index

    5 publications

    1.9K citations

  5. University of Washington Applied Physics Laboratory

    Seattle, United States

    5 h-index

    6 publications

    3.2K citations

  6. Vienna Institute of Demography

    Vienna, Austria

    4 h-index

    5 publications

    161 citations

  7. Harvard University

    Cambridge, United States

    3 h-index

    3 publications

    231 citations

  8. The University of Queensland

    Brisbane, Australia

    3 h-index

    7 publications

    237 citations

1–8 of 160

Venues

  1. 9

    h-index

  2. Demography

    8 publications · 800 citations

    8

    h-index

  3. Population and Development Review

    6 publications · 342 citations

    6

    h-index

  4. Demographic Research

    6 publications · 318 citations

    6

    h-index

  5. IIASA PURE (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis)

    Repository · 5 publications · 79 citations

    5

    h-index

1–5