Concepedia

Naïve Forecasting

Naïve Forecasting is a forecasting method that assumes the best prediction for the next time period is simply the most recently observed value, distinguishing itself from other time series models by its reliance on minimal assumptions and absence of parameter estimation or structural analysis.

48

Publications

1.9K

Citations

118

Authors

69

Institutions

Publications per year

2017–2026

17

Variants

Naive Forecasting

Parents

Publications

48

Earnings Estimates and the Accuracy of Expectational Data

Edwin J. Elton, Martin J. Gruber · Management Science · 1972 · 155 citations

, , +14

Forecasting presidential elections: A comparison of naive models

Michael S. Lewis‐Beck, Tom W. Rice · Political Behavior · 1984 · 136 citations

, , +12

A generalized simulation development approach for predicting refugee destinations

Diana Suleimenova, David Bell, Derek Groen · Scientific Reports · 2017 · 124 citations · Full text

, , +9

Climatology, Persistence, and Their Linear Combination as Standards of Reference in Skill Scores

Allan H. Murphy · Weather and Forecasting · 1992 · 120 citations · Full text

, , +15

Evaluation of random forests and Prophet for daily streamflow forecasting

Georgia Papacharalampous, Hristos Tyralis · Advances in geosciences · 2018 · 97 citations · Full text

, , +17

1–5 of 48

Authors

118

  1. JL
    Jesper Lindé

    Swedish National Bank, Sweden

    2 publications · 96 citations

    2

    h-index

  2. KR
    Kasper Roszbach

    Swedish National Bank, Sweden

    2 publications · 96 citations

    2

    h-index

  3. TJ
    Tor Jacobson

    Swedish National Bank, Sweden

    2 publications · 96 citations

    2

    h-index

  4. MS
    Markus Spiwoks

    University of Göttingen, Germany

    2 publications · 26 citations

    2

    h-index

  5. KB
    Kilian Bizer

    University of Göttingen, Germany

    2 publications · 26 citations

    2

    h-index

1–5 of 118

Institutions

69

  1. Purdue University West Lafayette

    West Lafayette, United States

    2 h-index

    3 publications

    239 citations

  2. Swedish National Bank

    Stockholm, Sweden

    2 h-index

    5 publications

    208 citations

  3. University of Göttingen

    Göttingen, Germany

    2 h-index

    5 publications

    66 citations

  4. Ostfalia University of Applied Sciences

    Wolfenbüttel, Germany

    2 h-index

    3 publications

    38 citations

  5. University of Groningen

    Groningen, The Netherlands

    2 h-index

    2 publications

    96 citations

  6. Wrocław University of Science and Technology

    Wroclaw, Poland

    2 h-index

    5 publications

    171 citations

  7. Max Planck Institute for Human Development

    Berlin, Germany

    1 h-index

    2 publications

    96 citations

  8. Institut für Handelsforschung

    Cologne, Germany

    1 h-index

    1 publications

    16 citations

1–8 of 69

Venues

  1. Journal of Accounting Research

    JAR · 2 publications · 111 citations

    2

    h-index

  2. Financial Review

    FR · 2 publications · 34 citations

    2

    h-index

  3. Nature Communications

    1 publications · 29 citations

    1

    h-index

  4. Space Weather

    1 publications · 19 citations

    1

    h-index

  5. Annals of Operations Research

    1 publications · 17 citations

    1

    h-index

1–5