Concepedia

Forecast Reliability Analysis

Forecast Reliability Analysis is a methodological framework within forecasting uncertainty that systematically evaluates the statistical consistency between forecasted probabilities and observed outcomes to assess the trustworthiness of predictive models.

95

Publications

6K

Citations

205

Authors

112

Institutions

Publications per year

2017–2026

29

Parents

Publications

95

A New Vector Partition of the Probability Score

Allan H. Murphy · Journal of applied meteorology · 1973 · 1.1K citations · Full text

, , +15

The use of ARIMA models for reliability forecasting and analysis

Sze Ling Ho, Min Xie · Computers & Industrial Engineering · 1998 · 445 citations

, , +13

Reliability of Subjective Probability Forecasts of Precipitation and Temperature

Allan H. Murphy, Robert L. Winkler · Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C (Applied Statistics) · 1977 · 391 citations

, , +15

Increasing the Reliability of Reliability Diagrams

Jochen Bröcker, Leonard A. Smith · Weather and Forecasting · 2007 · 319 citations

, , +15

The Value of Climatological, Categorical and Probabilistic Forecasts in the Cost-Loss Ratio Situation

Allan H. Murphy · Monthly Weather Review · 1977 · 229 citations · Full text

, , +15

1–5 of 95

Authors

205

  1. AH
    Allan H. Murphy

    Oregon State University, United States

    7 publications · 2K citations

    7

    h-index

  2. JB
    Jochen Bröcker

    University of Reading, United Kingdom

    6 publications · 424 citations

    6

    h-index

  3. FA
    Frédéric Atger

    Institute Mutualiste Montsouris, France

    3 publications · 145 citations

    3

    h-index

  4. SJ
    Simon J. Mason

    Columbia University, United States

    2 publications · 179 citations

    2

    h-index

  5. ZB
    Zied Ben Bouallègue

    European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, United Kingdom

    2 publications · 51 citations

    2

    h-index

1–5 of 205

Institutions

112

  1. NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research

    Boulder, United States

    6 h-index

    8 publications

    1.9K citations

  2. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

    Reading, United Kingdom

    6 h-index

    13 publications

    491 citations

  3. Météo-France

    Toulouse, France

    3 h-index

    3 publications

    145 citations

  4. University of Reading

    Reading, United Kingdom

    3 h-index

    5 publications

    142 citations

  5. University of Oxford

    Oxford, United Kingdom

    3 h-index

    12 publications

    648 citations

  6. Max Planck Institute for the Physics of Complex Systems

    Dresden, Germany

    3 h-index

    3 publications

    74 citations

  7. Bureau of Meteorology

    Melbourne, Australia

    3 h-index

    8 publications

    397 citations

  8. University of Colorado Boulder

    Boulder, United States

    3 h-index

    3 publications

    125 citations

1–8 of 112

Venues

  1. Monthly Weather Review

    16 publications · 977 citations

    15

    h-index

  2. 8

    h-index

  3. SSRN Electronic Journal

    Repository · 3 publications · 62 citations

    3

    h-index

  4. Weather and Forecasting

    3 publications · 438 citations

    3

    h-index

  5. Water Resources Research

    2 publications · 30 citations

    2

    h-index

1–5