Pavel Atanasov

Psychological Strategies for Winning a Geopolitical Forecasting Tournament

Barbara A. Mellers, Lyle Ungar, Jonathan Baron et al. · Psychological Science · 2014 · 312 citations

Forecasting Methodology, Game Theory, Project Management +23

The psychology of intelligence analysis: Drivers of prediction accuracy in world politics.

Barbara A. Mellers, Eric Stone, Pavel Atanasov et al. · Journal of Experimental Psychology Applied · 2015 · 200 citations

Educational Psychology, Cognition, Political Behavior +23

Distilling the Wisdom of Crowds: Prediction Markets vs. Prediction Polls

Pavel Atanasov, Phillip Rescober, Eric Stone et al. · Management Science · 2016 · 173 citations

Engineering, Prediction Polls, Behavioral Decision Making +20

CAD or MAD? Anger (not disgust) as the predominant response to pathogen-free violations of the divinity code.

Edward B. Royzman, Pavel Atanasov, Justin F. Landy et al. · Emotion · 2014 · 114 citations

Affective Variable, Psychosocial Determinant, Social Psychology +16

Small steps to accuracy: Incremental belief updaters are better forecasters

Pavel Atanasov, Jens Witkowski, Lyle Ungar et al. · Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes · 2020 · 49 citations

Artificial Intelligence, Forecasting Methodology, Probabilistic Forecasting +13