Microbial communities along mucosal surfaces throughout the digestive tract are hypothesized as risk factors for impaired glucose regulation and the development of clinical cardiometabolic disease. We investigated whether baseline measures of subgingival microbiota predicted fasting plasma glucose (FPG) longitudinally. The Oral Infections, Glucose Intolerance and Insulin Resistance Study (ORIGINS) enrolled 230 diabetes-free adults (77% female) aged 20 to 55 y (mean ± SD, 34 ± 10 y) from whom baseline subgingival plaque and longitudinal FPG were measured. DNA was extracted from subgingival plaque, and V3 to V4 regions of the 16S rRNA gene were sequenced. FPG was measured at baseline and again at 2 y; glucose change was defined as follow-up minus baseline. Multivariable linear models regressed 2-y glucose change onto baseline measures of community diversity and abundances of 369 individual taxa. A microbial dysbiosis index (MDI) summarizing top individual taxa associated with glucose change was calculated and used in regression models. Models were adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, smoking status, body mass index, and baseline glucose levels. Statistical significance was based on the false discovery rate (FDR; <0.05) or a Bonferroni-corrected P value of 1 × 10^-4, derived from the initial 369 hypothesis tests for specific taxa. Mean 2-y FPG change was 1.5 ± 8 mg/dL. Baseline levels of 9 taxa predicted FPG change (all FDR <0.05), among which Stomatobaculum sp oral taxon 097 and Atopobium spp predicted greater FPG change, while Leptotrichia sp oral taxon 498 predicted lesser FPG change (all 3 P values, Bonferroni significant). The MDI explained 6% of variation in longitudinal glucose change (P < 0.001), and baseline glucose levels explained 10% of variation (P < 0.0001). FPG change values ± SE in the third versus first tertile of the MDI were 4.5 ± 0.9 versus 1.6 ± 0.9 (P < 1 × 10^-4). Subgingival microbiota predict 2-y glucose change among diabetes-free men and women.

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