2008 · 474 citations · 0 references
Chinese Foreign PolicyEast Asian StudiesLiberal System SurviveSocial SciencesDiplomacyPolitical EconomyLanguage StudiesChinese PoliticsGeopoliticsInternational RelationsPower TransitionEconomic LiberalizationEast Asian LanguagesChinese CulturePolitical PluralismGlobal PoliticsChinese PowerEast AsiaPolitical Science
China’s rapid economic expansion and assertive diplomacy are reshaping East Asia and potentially shifting global power toward the East, raising concerns of a power transition that could lead to tension, distrust, and conflict. The paper investigates how China’s rise will unfold—whether it will challenge or integrate into the existing order—and what strategies the United States might adopt to maintain its influence.
THE RISE of China will undoubtedly be one of great dramas of twenty-first century. China's extraordinary economic growth and active diplomacy are already transforming East Asia, and future decades will see even greater increases in Chinese power and influence. But exactly how this drama will play out is an open question. Will China overthrow existing order or become part of it? And what, if any thing, can United States do to maintain its position as China rises? Some observers believe that American era is coming to an end, as Western-oriented order is replaced by one increasingly dominated by East. The historian Niall Ferguson has written that bloody twentieth century witnessed the descent of West and a reorientation of world toward East. Realists go on to note that as China gets more powerfiul and United States' position erodes, two things are likely to happen: China will try to use its growing influence to reshape rules and institutions of international system to better serve its interests, and other states in system especially declining hegemon-will start to see China as growing security threat. The result of these developments, they predict, will be tension, distrust, and conflict, typical features of power transition.