Analysing the uncertain future of copper with three exploratory system dynamics models

Abstract

High copper prices, the prospect of a transition to a more sustainable energy mix and increasing copper demands from emerging economies have not led to an in-creased attention to the base metal copper in mineral scarcity discussions. The copper system is well documented, but especially regarding the demand of copper many uncertainties exist. In order to create insight in this systems behaviour in the coming 40 years, an Exploratory System Dynamics Modelling and Analysis study was performed. Three different models have been developed representing different views on copper supply and demand. The behaviour of these models shows crisis-like behaviour for the copper price, and often a declining consump-tion of refined copper. Six different policy options have been explored, individu-ally and in combinations, for their robustness in counteracting undesirable behav-iours. The results of these tests are that emphasising recycling, and the develop-ment of strategic reserves are potentially helpful.