Uncertainty analysis in flood hazard assessment: hydrological and hydraulic calibrationThis article is one of a selection of papers published in this Special Issue on Hydrotechnical Engineering.

Abstract

Interest in the actual estimation of the uncertainty affecting flood hazard assessments is increasing within the scientific community and among decision makers. Several works may be found in the hydrological and hydraulic literature listing the sources of uncertainty affecting the estimation of extreme flood levels. Here, a well-assessed uncertainty treatment procedure is applied to carry out a complete flood hazard assessment study to encompass both the hydrological and hydraulic components. In particular, the focus is on modeling the sources of uncertainty via a direct (for discharge) or inverse (for roughness hydraulic coefficient) approach. The results illustrate the relative importance of the hydraulic and hydrological uncertainty sources on the final uncertainty. The solution of the inverse problem for the calibration of the roughness coefficient proves useful for several reasons, including the quantification of model error.