BRIDGE PERFORMANCE PREDICTION MODEL USING THE MARKOV CHAIN

Abstract

As part of a study to develop a comprehensive bridge management system for the Indiana Department of Highways (IDOH), a bridge performance prediction model using the Markov chain was developed. The model can be used to predict the percentages of bridges with different condition ratings as well as to develop performance curves of bridges. The Markov chain, a probability-based method, was used in the model to reflect the stochastic nature of bridge conditions. The study exhibited the power of the Markov chain approach in prediction or estimation of future bridge conditions. The procedure, although simple, was found to provide a high level of accuracy in predicting bridge conditions.