An Event Tree Analysis of Folsom Point Failure

Abstract

This paper investigates the failure rates experienced by flint knappers. To do this, event tree models are use in conjunction with the archaeologically reconstntcted lithic reduction sequence to order the production sequence of Folsom fluted projectile points. Use of archaeological material to constntct the model makes it possible to reconstntct the rate of failure experienced by the prehistoric flint knappers and to identify the point in the production sequence where failure was most likely to occur. The prehistonc rates off allure denved by the model are compared to failure rates proposed by experimental methods and found to be much higher.