Probabilistic coordination of microgrid energy resources operation considering uncertainties

This paper presents probabilistic coordination of distributed energy resources (DERs) operation in an islanded microgrid with consideration of the associated uncertainties. In doing so, a comprehensive stochastic mathematical model is developed which incorporates a set of valid probabilistic scenarios for the uncertainties of load and intermittency in wind and solar generation sources. The uncertainty is addressed through a combination of a stochastic optimization model and additional reserve requirements. The model also includes hourly interruption costs for a variety of customer types as a means of determining the optimal probabilistic interruptible load whose reliability-based value is low enough to enable it to be shed if necessary. A case study is carried out using a benchmark microgrid; numerical results demonstrate that coordinated operation of DERs brings notable benefits in terms of expected operation costs and system security. This probabilistic coordination further reduces the consequences of the expected power dispatch of controllable generators and hourly unserved power.