Scoring Arrears at a Microlender in Bolivia

Abstract

Can scoring models help microlenders in poor countries as much as they have helped credit-card lenders in rich countries? This paper presents a scorecard that predicts the probability that loans from a microlender in Bolivia will have arrears of 15 days or more. Although arrears in microfinance depend on many factors difficult to include in scorecards, the paper shows that inexpensive, simple-to-collect data does have some predictive power. In micro-finance, scoring will not replace loan officers, but it can flag high-risk cases and act as a cross-check on loan officers' judgment.