World nuclear energy paths

Abstract

In examing the world nuclear energy paths, the following assumptions were adopted: the world economy will grow somewhat more slowly than in the past, leading to reductions in electricity demand growth rates; national and international political impediments to the deployment of nuclear power will gradually disappear over the next few years; further development of nuclear power will proceed steadily, without serious interruption but with realistic lead times for the introduction of advanced technologies. Given these assumptions, this paper attempts a study of possible world nuclear energy developments, disaggregated on a regional and national basis. The scenario technique was used and a few alternative fuel-cycle scenarios were developed. Each is an internally consistent model of technically and economically feasible paths to the further development of nuclear power in an aggregate of individual countries and regions of the world. The main purpose of this modeling exercise was to gain some insight into the probable international locations of reactors and other nuclear facilities, the future requirements for uranium and for fuel-cycle services, and the problems of spent-fuel storage and waste management. The study also presents an assessment of the role that nuclear power might actually play in meeting future world energy demand. (MCW)