The Aging of the U.S. Population: Human Resource Implications.

Abstract

If present demographic trends persist the proportion of older persons in the US is expected to increase significantly. Predictions of major labor shortages in the next 2 decades leading to demand for more older workers may be exaggerated. The growth of the middle-aged to older work force will be the most important characteristic of the future labor market. While there will be a decline in numbers of younger labor force entrants this may not be significant enough to increase the demand for workers over age 65 whose labor force participation is already substantially diminished by the availability of public and private pensions desire for leisure and limited part-time employment opportunities. Over the next 30 years the population age 55 and over is expected to increase to nearly 70 million representing about 1 in 4 persons; 35 million people (60% women) will be at least 65 years old. The median population age will have increased to almost 37 from the present age 31. Life expectancy at birth and at age 65 will continue to increase significantly. The composition of the labor force by the year 2000 will be about 134 million people (a 22% increase over 1982). The proportion of middle-aged workers between 35-54 years will be about 49% of the labor force (64 million persons). This 14% increasein potential middle-aged workers can be contrasted with an 11% decline in workers aged 18-34. However under present and projected circumstances it is unlikely that major increases in older worker employment will occur unless national employment and retirement policies change significantly to accomodate older workers preferences for flexible part-time schedules. Although industries (wholesale and retail trade and services) and occupations (professional technical sales clerical and service) in which older persons are disproportionately employed today are expected to grow considerably there will also be a substantial number of middle-aged workers particularly women who might compete for this employment. It seems unlikely that older workers will be able to compete successfully against the largest cohort of middle-aged workers in US history.