The Changing Proliferation Threat

Abstract

Technological advances and new adversaries with new motives have reduced the relevancy and effectiveness of the American nonproliferation strategy that was developed during the Cold War. The Cold War`s end and the breakup of the Soviet Union have created new proliferation dangers even as they have reduced others. The familiar balance of nuclear terror that linked the superpowers and their client states for nearly 50 years in a choreographed series of confrontations has given way to a much less predictable situation, where weapons of unthinkable power appear within the grasp of those more willing to use them. Rogue nations and {open_quotes}clientless{close_quotes} states, terrorist groups, religious cults, ethnic minorities, disaffected political groups, and even individuals appear to have jointed a new arms race toward mass destruction. The author describes recent events that suggest the new trends and a serious challenge to US national security.