Malthusian pressures: empirical evidence from a frontier economy

Abstract

In this paper, we study Malthusian pressures in a frontier economy. Using the empirical data on real prices and demographic variables from 1688 to 1860 for Quebec and Montreal, we test for the existence of Malthusian pressures. Bearing in mind the particularities of frontier economies and the development of the Canadian economy, we conduct a Granger-causality analysis for the time-series of real wheat prices, birth and death rates with the help of VARs in order to identify positive and preventive checks. Using the Bai–Perron test we find a structural break in 1767 and divide the sample into pre- and post-conquest periods. We find that the positive checks were operating in the years prior to the conquest but that they faded during the nineteenth century. It follows that an increase in the wheat prices Granger-causes an increase in death rates in the pre-conquest period. Additional tests and a robustness check of the detrending methods are performed.