DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION OF STATEWIDE, MULTIMODAL FREIGHT FORECASTING PROCEDURES FOR FLORIDA

Abstract

The development and application of a goods movement forecasting methodology resulting from the Statewide Multi-Modal Planning Process Project sponsored by the Florida Department of Transportation are described. The methodology involves two steps. First, the generation and distribution of freight are projected through a Fratar model that applies growth factors to current flows of commodities, In the second step, the projected freight flows are distributed among competing modes through modal-split models. The Fratar model was successfully applied to produce reasonable projections of freight traffic to, from and within Florida in 1985 and 2000. Efforts to develop modal-split models by using the logit formulation was not successful. The Fratar model was based on existing secondary sources of data. Because these sources exist in the same or an analogous form in other states, a similar modeling approach could be developed and applied elsewhere. (Author)