Avian Influenza: Potential Economic Impact of a Pandemic on Australia

Abstract

A medium level outbreak of an avian influenza pandemic in Australia is estimated to result in a 6.8 per cent reduction in Australia's gross domestic product (relative to a reference case) in the short term. Economic activity in all states and territories is estimated to decline at rates close to the national level, with Queensland incurring the most adverse short term effect - an estimated 7.1 per cent reduction in gross state product. Key sectors that are likely to be adversely affected the most include transport services and tourism related activities. The expected increase in demand for health services in the event of a pandemic is likely to lead to an expansion in such services across the country. Given the potential high costs to Australia and the global economy of an influenza pandemic, there is a clear need to continue to focus on preventive measures through regional and international collaboration. Prevention of an influenza pandemic is likely to be much more effective than a cure.