A SYSTEM OF WITHIN-DAY DYNAMIC DEMAND AND ASSIGNMENT MODELS FOR SCHEDULED INTERCITY SERVICES

Abstract

Mode choice models proposed in the literature for intercity travellers seldom take into account all available alternatives in terms of modal services, fare classes, access and egress terminals and modes. Furthermore the attributes related to time-tables such as frequency or number of transfers are averaged over time-periods (e.g. morning hours or whole day). In this paper a particular intercity mode choice model is presented, based on a tree logit structure. The combination of primary mode, service type, scheduled run and class are considered as elemental alternatives. Primary modes considered include car, train, plane and coach. For the train, mode service and fare class choice are also simulated. The explicit representation of desired arrival/departure time and scheduled runs available on each mode introduce a within-day dynamic dimension of users' travel decision. Moreover, different terminals for each primary mode are considered, if they exist, and choice probabilities vary according to the particular desired arrival/departure times and the scheduled time-tables. Such a model can be adopted in a decision support system (DSS) for the management and marketing of an intercity transit system as a tool to investigate changes in demand due to changes in supply characteristics including time-tables. Preliminary calibration results based on stated preference (SP) and revealed preference (RP) surveys are presented together with an elasticity analysis of the resulting model. For the covering abstract, see IRRD 889965.