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SUBWAY RELIABILITY AND THE ODDS OF GETTING THERE ON TIME
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1991
Year
EngineeringOdds RatiosSystem ReliabilityOperations ResearchReliability EngineeringRisk ManagementManagementTransit ManagersLogisticsSystems EngineeringTransit ReliabilityReliability AnalysisTransportation EngineeringStatisticsReliabilityTransportation PlanningPublic TransportReliability ModellingReliability ManagementBusinessTransportation Research
The most common service reliability measure--on-time performance--has drawbacks transit managers and consumers should be aware of. By converting on-time performance to odds ratios, a fresh look at what is meant by transit reliability is obtained. Although differences in on-time performance may seem slight, measurement with odds ratios can indicate quite different service levels. Transit managers, if they rely exclusively on on-time performance and do not heed the lesson to be learned from odds ratios, may be deceived when they estimate how much improvement can be achieved with a particular policy or action. The magnitude of effects will vary with level of effort, depending on the initial level of reliability.