2005 · 60 citations · 0 references
Traffic TheoryEngineeringHighway OperationsTraffic FlowSafety ScienceToll RoadsData ScienceTraffic PredictionRisk ManagementTransport InfrastructureTraffic SimulationTransportation EngineeringStatisticsTraffic Impact AnalysisPredictive AnalyticsAccountingTraffic ForecastsTraffic EngineeringForecastingFinanceInfrastructure DevelopmentCivil EngineeringBusiness
Standard & Poor’s has published a series of traffic‑forecasting risk reports, with the 2005 study extending the analysis from toll roads to include toll‑free roads and building on prior work. The study aims to evaluate traffic‑forecasting performance beyond the first year of operation, assessing long‑term accuracy. The analysis concentrates on the first year of operations, a sensitive period for cash‑flow generation needed to repay construction debt. The 2005 study’s findings challenge prior assumptions, revealing surprising long‑term forecasting performance. Covering abstract available at ITRD E135207.
Over the past three years the credit rating agency Standard & Poor's has published a series of reports reflecting on the performance of traffic forecasts. The original study concentrated on toll roads however, in 2004, data became available to allow for a comparative analysis of the traffic forecasting performance of toll roads with that from toll-free roads. Standard & Poor's 2005 traffic risk study ('Through Ramp-Up and Beyond') further extends our analysis. Until now, our focus has been on the first year of operations - typically a very sensitive time in terms of the generation of project cash flows robust enough to meet construction-related debt repayment obligations. Our 2005 study looks beyond this first year, at forecasting performance in years 2, 3, 4 etc. Some industry observers have commented that our earlier focus on Year 1 of highway operations may have generated results that failed to represent project performance over the longer term. Our 2005 study addresses this issue head-on, with results that may surprise some readers. For the covering abstract please see ITRD E135207.