2006 · 45 citations · 0 references
Natural SciencesEnvironmental PolicyEnvironmental SciencesClimate Change MitigationClimate PolicyClimate ScienceCarbon Emissions ManagementClimate ChangeClimate Mitigation PolicyClimate ProjectionsClimate Risk ManagementClimate Scenario PlanningCarbon DioxideEmission Scenario ModelingEmission Scenario ProjectionsEmission ScenariosEmissions Scenario ModelingEmissions ScenariosGreenhouse Gas Scenario AnalysisSurface Temperature
A research project was conducted to develop estimates of emissions pathways that have a high likelihood of keeping the rise in the world's average surface temperature above pre-industrial levels to below 2°C. Monte Carlo risk assessment modelling was used to estimate temperature pathways of different emission scenarios. It was estimated that to have a 'very low to low risk' (9-32% change) of exceeding the 2°C threshold, global emissions of carbon dioxide would need to peak between 2010 and 2013, achieve a maximum annual rate of decline of 4-5% by 2015-2020 and fall to 70-80% below 1990 levels by the middle of the century. The implications for the UK and for policy making are considered.