ESTIMATED AND PERCEIVED VARIABILITY OF TRANSIT TIME

Abstract

Two small surveys were made of shipper opinions on the value placed on reliability of delivery time. If the results are correct, two implications are suggested. Railroads have not done a good job in informing the shippers about improvement in rail services and to the extent that the preference for truck over rail was based, in part, on incorrect perceptions of the variability of transit time, a shift from trucks to rail as a fuel conservation measure may have less effect on shippers than may have been expected. A more definite conclusion has to wait until variability of transit time on the choice of transport mode is properly quantified.