Road transport sector modelling: supplementary report on clean energy future and government policy scenarios

Abstract

To support Treasury's role in supplying quantitative modelling in relation to the introduction of a carbon price, CSIRO was commissioned by the Commonwealth Department of Treasury to conduct economic modelling of the impact of alternative carbon price scenarios on the road transport sector in Australia out to 2050. CSIRO previously provided a report called 'Road transport sector modelling' which outlined modelling results for the road transport sector in detail in support of the Commonwealth's report on the impact across the whole economy called 'Strong growth, low pollution: modelling a carbon price'. This supplementary report provides details of road transport modelling results for two more scenarios: Clean Energy Future and Government Policy. The modelling primarily determines, given the model and scenario assumptions, the impact of alternative carbon price levels on the deployment of alternative road fuels and vehicles and the subsequent change in greenhouse gas emissions from the sector. The road sector modelling is performed using CSIRO's Energy Sector model (ESM). The modelling outputs provided by ESM are as inputs to a broader suite of models whose interactions are coordinated by the Department of Treasury. The ESM model, its data assumptions and the process applied for linking with other models has been previously described in 'Road transport sector modelling.