Forecasting the NAPM Purchasing Managers' Index

Abstract

The Purchasing Managers' Index, published monthly by the National Association of Purchasing Management (NAPM), is a highly recognized indicator of the health of the United States economy. Its information is so highly prized that many desire to get the information early. This article looks at several different indexes published by NAPM each month to help in making estimates of future values of the Purchasing Managers' Index. The results indicate that New Orders and a new index based on New Orders and Vendor Deliveries are both consistent leading indicators of the Purchasing Managers' Index by one month.