Turkey in a Changing Security Environment

Abstract

[O]ne can no longer measure Turkey's strategic importance in purely geographic terms.... Those factors remain--but Ankara is also an increasingly capable security actor in its own right, with the resources and the willingness to use military power beyond its borders. This does not necessarily imply a more unilateralist Turkey; in key areas such as the Balkans, Ankara has shown a strong preference for a more cautious, multilateral approach. Much Western scholarship on Turkey has tended to view Turkish foreign and security policy from one of two perspectives: inside-out or outside-in. The former methodology considers the nature of Turkish society, and its internal organizational and bureaucratic developments, and draws conclusions about their implications for Turkish foreign policy The latter tradition focuses on geo-politics as the prime motivator for the internal policies of Turkey and other states in its security complex. The distinction these traditions make is somewhat artificial. Turkey's internal affairs clearly have a profound influence on the nature and direction of the country's external policy, and developments in the strategic environment affect the evolution of Turkish society and politics. Modern Turkish history is replete with examples of both tendencies, and current developments continue to support this contention. The following is an overview of leading issues affecting Turkey's perceptions of, and position in, its changing security environment. It suggests that Turkey's role in the 21st century is likely to transcend well-established images and will be increasingly independent and assertive. At the same time, some of Turkey's long-standing spheres of competition, especially in its relationship with Greece, may become less salient. From the Western perspective, Turkey will become a more active, capable and, in some instances, independent ally Although this analysis concentrates on the country's external, international influences, it is important to note that Turkey's security policy elites consistently place internal challenges, including Islamism and Kurdish separatism, at the top of their agenda. In the Turkish context the discourse over these issues in the security debate interacts with their perceptions of the external security environment, particularly in relation to the Middle East. A MORE ACTIVE DEBATE, A MORE CAPABLE ACTOR One of the leading aspects of recent change in Turkish security policy has been the role of public opinion in the evolving concerns of security elites. Whereas during the Cold War Turkey's foreign and security policy outlook was relatively circumscribed and naturally dominated by the country's role in the containment of Soviet power, the last decade has witnessed a sweeping enlargement of the country's external horizons. The notion that Turkey's interests and potential influence stretch from the Balkans to western China has proven quite realistic, even if some of the early assumptions about Ankara's role in the newly independent Turkic republics of Central Asia proved somewhat overblown. Certainly, everyday events in the Balkans, the Caucasus and the Middle East are rapidly noted in the Turkish security debate and play a role in public opinion. Large and increasingly vocal lobbies, drawn from communities within Turkey that trace their origins to such places as Bosnia or Azerbaijan, have reinforced this trend. Turkish policy interests and initiatives mirror this expanded concept of Turkey's security space. Recent examples include defending the welfare of Turkish residents in Germany, and more active diplomacy in the Caucasus. The rise of Turkish nationalism and closer attention to sovereignty questions as political forces within Turkey have led Ankara to vigorously defend its interests in recent years.(2) The most impressive examples in this regard have included the use or the threatened use of force beyond Turkey's borders. …