Teaching Project Simulation in Excel using PERT-beta distributions

Abstract

T paper presents the methodology for computing the correct general formulas for the PERT-beta distribution, and how they are used to carry out stochastic project duration simulations using the built-in tools available in Excel. A comparison with results obtained using the Excel add-ins Crystal Ball, @Risk, RiskSolver, and PopTools is included. Slightly different parameterizations are used by each application, so various forms of the formulas are shown for each case.