Forecasting of the Earth orientation parameters - comparison of different algorithms

Abstract

ABSTRACT. The Earth orientation parameters (EOP) are determined by space geodetic techniques with very high accuracy. However, the accuracy of their prediction, even for a few days in the future, is several times lower and still unsatisfactory for practical use. The main problem of each prediction technique is to predict simultaneously long and short period oscillations of the EOP. It has been shown that the combination of the prediction methods which are different for deterministic and stochastic components of the EOP can provide the best accuracy of prediction. Several prediction techniques, e.g. combination of the least-squares with autoregressive and autocovariance methods as well as combination of wavelet transform decomposition and autocovariance prediction, were used to predict x, y pole coordinates in polar coordinate system and UT1 − UTC or length of day (∆) data. Different prediction algorithms were compared considering the difference between the EOP data and their predictions at different starting prediction epochs as well as by comparing the mean EOP prediction errors. 1.