Long-range PM2.5 pollution and health impacts from the 2023 Canadian wildfires

Abstract

Smoke from extreme wildfires in Canada adversely affected air quality in many regions in 20231,2. Here we use satellite observations, machine learning and a chemical transport model to quantify global and regional PM2.5 (particulate matter less than 2.5 μm in diameter) exposure and human health impacts related to the 2023 Canadian wildfires. We find that the fires increased annual PM2.5 exposure worldwide by 0.17 μg m–3 (95% confidence interval, 0.09–0.26 μg m–3). North America had the largest increase in annual mean exposure (1.08 μg m–3; 0.82–1.34 μg m–3), but there were also increases in Europe (0.41 μg m–3; 0.32–0.50 μg m–3) owing to long-range transport. Annual mean PM2.5 exposure in Canada increased by 3.82 μg m–3 (3.00–4.64 μg m–3). In the USA, the contribution of the Canadian fires to increased PM2.5 was 1.49 μg m–3 (1.22–1.77 μg m–3), four times as large as the contribution from the 2023 wildfires originating in the USA. We find that 354 million (277–421 million) people in North America and Europe were exposed to daily PM2.5 air pollution caused by Canadian wildfires in 2023. We estimate that 5,400 (3,400–7,400) acute deaths in North America and 64,300 (37,800–90,900) chronic deaths in North America and Europe were attributable to PM2.5 exposure to the 2023 Canadian wildfires. Our results highlight the far-reaching PM2.5 pollution and health burden that large wildfires can have in a single year. A modelling study based on satellite observations, machine learning and a chemical transport model quantifies the global and regional exposure to particulate-matter pollution and the human health impacts related to the 2023 Canadian wildfires.