The Global Syndemic of Modifiable Cardiovascular Risk Factors Projected From 2025 to 2050

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the leading cause of global mortality. Understanding epidemiologic trends in the modifiable risk factors driving CVDs is essential in designing effective countermeasures. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to forecast geospatial trends of modifiable cardiovascular risk factors, namely high systolic blood pressure (SBP), high fasting plasma glucose, high body mass index (BMI), high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and tobacco use from 2025 to 2050. METHODS: Historical data on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and mortality from the GBD (Global Burden of Disease) 2021 study were used to forecast the burden associated with modifiable cardiovascular risk factors from 2025 to 2050. Trends across GBD super-regions, sex, sociodemographic index, and age groups were examined. RESULTS: In 2050, high SBP (1,694.2 [95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 1,454.6-1,933.9] per 100,000 population) will contribute to the highest age-standardized DALYs, followed by high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (657.6 [95% UI: 511.9-803.3] per 100,000 population), high BMI (495.2 [95% UI: 330.8-659.6] per 100,000 population), tobacco use (493.7 [95% UI: 378.2-609.1] per 100,000 population), and high fasting plasma glucose (466.7 [95% UI: 311.9-621.5] per 100,000 population). Although age-standardized DALY rates will fall across all cardiovascular risk factors from 2025 to 2050, overall crude DALYs associated with cardiovascular risk factors are projected to rise within the same period. High SBP (rising by 99 million DALYs; 44.1% increase), and high BMI (increasing by 44 million DALYs; 88.0% increase) will have the greatest rise in crude DALYs from 2025 to 2050. CONCLUSIONS: Although the projected decline in age-standardized DALYs of modifiable cardiovascular risk factors suggest improved management of CVDs, crude DALYs will continue to rise due to population growth and aging.