Exposure-Sensitivity-Adaptability (ESA) framework based evaluation and characteristics analysis of urban disasters vulnerability in China

Abstract

Climate change and urbanization have intensified natural disaster risks, necessitating robust urban vulnerability assessments. This study develops an “Exposure-Sensitivity-Adaptability” framework to analyze vulnerabilities across China’s nine major river basin cities from pre--disaster, during--disaster, and post-disaster perspectives, using 36 indicators spanning resources, ecological environments, economy, and social dimensions. Analysis reveals distinct spatial patterns: eastern cities show 35% lower vulnerability scores compared to central and western regions, forming a clear vulnerability gradient. Urban agglomerations, particularly larger cities, demonstrate 28% lower vulnerability indices than non-agglomeration areas. The spatial correlation analysis indicates significant clustering in vulnerability distribution. Eastern regions exhibit superior post-disaster resilience, with recovery rates 1.5 times higher than western areas. Factor analysis reveals that the synergy between sensitivity and resilience factors explains 65% of the total variance in vulnerability assessment. This process-oriented framework provides quantitative insights for enhancing urban disaster resilience across different development stages.