Hydrological Changes Caused by Integrated Warming, Wetting, and Greening in Permafrost Regions of the Qinghai‐Tibetan Plateau

Abstract

Abstract The Qinghai‐Tibetan Plateau (QTP) has undergone significant warming, wetting, and greening (WWG) over decades, alongside substantial alterations in hydrological regimes. These changes present great challenges for safeguarding water resources and ecosystems downstream. However, the lack of field observation and systematic research has obscured our understanding of how hydrological processes respond to the combined influences of climate‐permafrost‐vegetation. This study focuses on the source regions of the Yangtze River, one of the highest permafrost‐covered basins on the QTP, and employs a process‐based hydrological model to quantify the effects of WWG on hydrological processes. We show that the increasing precipitation dominates subsurface runoff changes while rising temperature primarily affects surface runoff changes by reducing the frozen duration (−52 days/century) and thickening the active layer (+2.4 cm/year). Greening vegetation primarily affects transpiration and interception evaporation. Warming, wetting, and greening will cause a transition in runoff dynamics from surface runoff dominance to subsurface runoff dominance in permafrost basins, and reduce the risk of both flooding and water shortage indicated by the decreased maximum low flow duration and maximum high flow duration of 11.0 and 5.0 days/year, respectively. Moreover, cold permafrost regions exhibit a greater propensity for generating runoff, as indicated by a higher annual increase in runoff coefficient (0.005/year) and total runoff (4.81 mm/year), compared to warm permafrost regions (with increase of 0.001/year and 1.20 mm/year, respectively). These findings enhance the understanding of hydrological changes due to WWG and provide insights for water resources management in permafrost regions under climate change.