Multi-Model Ensemble Enhances the Spatiotemporal Comprehensive Performance of Regional Climate in China

Abstract

The multi-model ensemble (MME) approaches are highly regarded in climate prediction and risk assessment for their capacity to integrate multiple global climate models (GCMs) and minimize uncertainties associated with individual models. However, the quantitative impacts of spatial scale, weighted ensemble, and bias correction on the spatiotemporal comprehensive performance of MME remain unknown. In this study, we comprehensively assessed the historical simulation capabilities of 41 CMIP6 GCMs at national, basin, and grid scales. Additionally, we investigated the impact of bias correction and weighted ensemble on enhancing climate simulation performance. The results indicate that CMIP6 models exhibit notable differences in simulating regional climate characteristics of China across different scales. Weighted multi-model ensemble schemes incorporating better-performing models consistently outperform equal-weight approaches, achieving an average 20.67% reduction in the DISO (distance between indices of simulation and observation) index, with temporal performance improvements being particularly pronounced. Bias correction played a critical role in the enhancement of MMEs, reducing DISO values by 41.60% on average, particularly in the spatial dimension. Among all MMEs, the grid-scale optimized ensemble (GBQ), combining bias correction, model selection, and performance-based weighting, demonstrated superior comprehensive performance, achieving the lowest DISO values across spatial and temporal dimensions. These findings provide new insights for enhancing regional climate simulation and evaluation, and they provide more reliable scientific information for investigating climate change and formulating adaptation strategies in China.