An Integrated Framework for Cryptocurrency Price Forecasting and Anomaly Detection Using Machine Learning

Abstract

The accurate prediction of cryptocurrency prices is crucial due to the volatility and complexity of digital asset markets, which pose significant challenges to traders, investors, and researchers. This research addresses these challenges by leveraging machine learning and deep learning techniques to forecast closing prices for cryptocurrencies, focusing on Bitcoin, Ethereum, Binance Coin, and Litecoin cryptocurrency datasets. A Random Forest ensemble learning algorithm, a Gradient Boosting model, and a feedforward neural network were implemented to handle the complexities in cryptocurrency data. A Z-Score-based anomaly detection framework was integrated to classify closing prices as normal or abnormal, aiding in identifying significant market events. Evaluation metrics, such as the Mean Squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and R-squared (R2), demonstrate the superior precision and reliability of the Random Forest and Gradient Boosting models. The deep learning model indicates strong generalization capabilities, suggesting potential advantages on more complex datasets. These findings highlight the importance of combining advanced machine learning techniques and cryptocurrencies to develop a robust framework for cryptocurrency forecasting and anomaly detection.