From scenarios to strategies: Integrated methodology for addressing urban heat vulnerability in an uncertain future

Abstract

• We present methodology for integrated heat vulnerability analysis (HVA). • HVA combines SSPs, RCPs, future LULC scenarios and stakeholder engagement. • Climate impacts and current urbanisation trends increase heat vulnerability. • Climate adaptation effectively reduce heat vulnerability. • HVA provides important insights for planning climate resilient and sustainable cities. Challenges posed by extreme heat threaten cities, human health and well-being. Consequently, climate adaptation has become crucial for sustainable urban development. Heat vulnerability assessment has been proposed to guide adaptation strategies by identifying areas and populations susceptible to climate impacts. This article presents an innovative methodological approach to heat vulnerability assessment, integrating climate models based on Representative Concentration Pathways, participatory co-production of future land use and land cover scenarios derived from Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, and demographic projections. Using Prague as a case study, this approach generates vulnerability scenarios that pinpoint specific patterns and vulnerable urban areas for both near (2030) and distant futures (2050). Results suggest that while climate change and socioeconomic development outlooks will negatively impact urban vulnerability, cities can mitigate climate effects through comprehensive adaptation measures and sustainably-oriented urban planning. The article highlights methodological contributions and explores how a nuanced understanding of future developments can empower planners and decision-makers to enhance urban climate resilience and sustainability.