Projecting Future Land Use Evolution and Its Effect on Spatiotemporal Patterns of Habitat Quality in China

Abstract

In recent years, irrational land development has caused significant habitat quality problems. Previous habitat quality studies have mainly concentrated on medium- and small-sized areas, and few studies have conducted a comprehensive long-term analysis of terrestrial habitat quality in large countries. Accordingly, this research aimed to identify the changes in land use and habitat quality in China during the last four decades. The InVEST method was employed for evaluating China’s habitat quality. This evaluation included both habitat degradation and habitat quality scores. Then, the FLUS and InVEST methods were combined to project future land use evolution in China through 2050 and assess its effect on habitat quality. Our study demonstrated a robust connection between habitat quality and the spatial distribution of land use classes, topography, and resource availability. Furthermore, over the past four decades, high-quality habitats in the country have been degrading and shrinking, while low-quality habitats have been expanding. The projection results indicate that the habitat problems in China will become increasingly severe over the coming decades. Our study suggests that the habitat quality in China should be improved by optimizing land use patterns, stabilizing areas with optimal habitat conditions, and restoring degraded habitats.