Electric truck adoption and charging development: Policy insights from a dynamic model

Abstract

• A system dynamics model of e-truck adoption and charging infrastructure development. • Policy interventions are crucial; dynamics must be considered when allocating budgets. • Five policies analysed: charging & vehicle subsidies, tech maturity investments, electricity & diesel price changes. • Charging station subsidies significantly increase e-truck adoption. • Technology maturity investments are the most efficient use of limited resources. The adoption of electric heavy trucks holds great potential for decarbonising freight transportation, but the market remains nascent. Electrification of the road freight transportation system is complex, involving many interrelated variables, including vehicles, charging infrastructure, and various stakeholders. Effective policy interventions are crucial for accelerating the transition, and developing dynamic models is helpful for understanding the dynamics involved. This study develops a system dynamics model to explore the long-term adoption of electric trucks and charging infrastructure development, considering technology maturity, awareness, and cost. Using real-world data from Sweden (2017–2060), the model analyses various policy levers. The results show that increasing subsidies for charging stations leads to a considerable rise in electric truck adoption, while investments in vehicle technology maturity are the most cost-efficient when financial resources are constrained. By modelling policy interventions endogenously, the study highlights the dynamic impact of policymaking on accelerating the transition to sustainable road freight transport.