Deciphering decadal urban ozone trends from historical records since 1980

Abstract

ABSTRACT Ozone pollution is a major environmental threat to human health. Timely assessment of ozone trends is crucial for informing environmental policy. Here we show that for the most recent decade (2013–2022) in the northern hemisphere, warm-season (April–September) mean daily 8-h average maximum ozone increases much faster in urban regions with top ozone levels (mainly in the North China Plain, 1.2 ± 1.3 ppbv year−1) than in other, low-ozone regions (0.2 ± 0.9 ppbv year−1). These trends widen the ozone differences across urban regions, and increase extreme pollution levels and health threats from a global perspective. Comparison of historical trends in different urban regions reveals that ozone increases in China during 2013–2022 differ in magnitude and mechanisms to historical periods in other regions since 1980. This reflects a unique chemical environment characterized by exceptionally high nitrogen oxides and aerosol concentrations, where reducing ozone precursor emissions leads to substantial ozone increase. Ozone increase in China has slowed down in 2018–2022 compared to 2013–2017, driven by ongoing emission reductions, but with ozone-favorable weather conditions. Historical ozone evolution in Japan and South Korea indicates that ozone increases should be suppressed with continuous emission reduction. Increasing temperature and associated wildfires have also reversed ozone decreases in the USA and Europe, with anthropogenic ozone control slowing down in recent decades.